After a win over minnows Cape Verde the Uganda Cranes fans have started talking about the mathematical chance of a place in the Africa Cup of Nations. In your dreams.
This win came on the heels of a 4-0 drubbing by the Democratic Republic of Congo a fortnight earlier.
I never know whether to tear my hair out with frustration at my friends who insist on hoping that “this time they (cranes) will make it” to the Africa Cup of Nations or World Cup or laugh uncontrollably at their naiveté. I normally do a combination of both.
In business, politics or any other sphere of life the “fundamentals” are important in predicting success or failure.
So in business for example the fundamentals may include the product, market, management and the environment. In politics it may include the politician, his ideology, a chain of events and the context. So the success of an enterprise or a political career will depend on certain fundamentals without which success cannot be expected.
So in predicting Cranes prospects of success or lack of thereof you have to look at the fundamentals of the team.
To set up the conditions for a successful team is not rocket science, winning is the difficult part but at least if your fundamentals are sound you improve your chances of victory.
So what would be the fundamentals of a good soccer team?
Obviously a pool of talented players whose skills are being constantly honed in training and in competition has to be at the top of any coach’s wish list. A competent, dedicated sports administration able to oversee not only the welfare of the players but create the environment for them to thrive. This environment would include constant competition, the best available training personnel and facilities.
The interaction of these fundamentals among others would greatly increase the possibility of success.
But the Uganda cranes long suffering fans always throw up luck and that “football is football” whenever I tell them to forget about the Cranes. Relying on luck is the preserve of the no-hopers.
As evidence of “good luck” they point to Greece’s historic win in last year’s European Football Championships or more recently Liverpool’s recovering from 3-0 deficit to win the European Club Championships. Closer to home they point to Davis Kamoga’s bronze medal achievement in Atlanta or John Akii-Bua’s record breaking gold medal feat in the Munich Olympics or Uganda Cranes run to the final of the Africa Cup of Nations in 1978.
But on closer scrutiny underlying all these supposedly lucky occurrences are solid fundamentals – talented teams/individuals, planned hard work and conducive environment.
Uganda’s last real football success in 1978 was built up methodically over five years. It helped of course that it had such talents as Phillip Omondi and Polly Ouma to anchor the team. And if you walked up to Kamoga and suggested he was lucky to win the Bronze in Atlanta or the Silver in the World Championships the following year you might not live to tell the tale. Akii-Bua would turn in his grave at the suggestion. They paid their dues.
The problem with us is that we are hooked to Hollywood’s formulaic underdog-tuned-hero script that gives the impression that success can be achieved even when the fundamentals are stacked against you.
My message to the long suffering Cranes fans is take notice when you see the fundamentals fall into place for the Ugandan national team but until then be like me spare yourselves the heartbreak and enjoy the English Premiership.